Tesla – “a positive earnings report would mark the first time that 17-year-old Tesla has reported four consecutive quarters of profit…” Wall Street Journal (article link). And yet, Tesla’s stock has grown by more than 5 times in the last 12 months. If a stock is company ownership, why would the value of a barely profitable company grow by 5X? Certainly, Tesla and Elon Musk have cool ideas and are building great stuff. They will be fun to watch, but still…

Asset bubbles happen when the price of a security or asset dramatically rise over a short time and are not supported by the value of the product. Think about the Tech Bubble of 2000. Dot Com companies were going public with little to no revenue or profit and their stocks would skyrocket. Think that doesn’t happen anymore? Hertz recently went bankrupt and the stock price rose 800% (June 4-9, 2020 Tradingview chart).

Bubbles aren’t new in history. There was Tulipmania in the 1630s, the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s, the Railroad Mania in the 1840s, the Wall Street bubbles of the 1920s, ’87, ’00/’02 and ‘08/’09. They all have the same persona, “it’s different this time.” So, are we in a new bubble? I wonder what we will name this one…

Honestly, we don’t know for sure, but much of the historical evidence points to the current stock market being a new bubble:

  • High valuations; the stock market is historically the most overvalued its ever been (per the Buffett Indicator, see market cap to GDP chart) except for the market peak in February of this year.
  • Increased use of credit to purchase assets – margin trading in increasing. (article link, link)
  • Band-wagon jumping – studies show that a high number of individual traders have jumped into markets this year (think Robinhood, article link), which is historically a sign of Irrational Exuberance.

All of these point to signs that a new bubble has formed and unless the Federal Reserve suspends reality forever history should repeat itself (or at least rhyme) and this bubble burst.

So how should we manage money through this?

The same way that we have been; by staying with our rules-based models, moving more a bit more conservative but staying invested and diversified, avoiding an emotional attachment to stocks and the news cycle.

We appreciate the trust that you put into us and know that we are working hard for you.

Investment Advisory Services offered through Sound Financial Strategies Group, LLC (SFSG), a Registered Investment Adviser. Certain representatives of SFSG are also Registered Representatives offering securities through APW Capital, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC, 100 Enterprise Drive, Suite 504, Rockaway, NJ 07866 (800)637-3211. SFSG and APW Capital are separate and unrelated companies.
The opinions expressed are those of Sound Financial Strategies Group, LLC (“Sound”). The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or to invest in any particular sector. Forward-looking statements are not guaranteed. Sound reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs, and there is no guarantee that its assessment of investments will be accurate. This information is not intended to be investment advice and does not take into account specific client investment objectives. Before investing, an investor should consider his or her investment goals and risk comfort levels and consult with his or her investment adviser and tax professional.
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